ESPN FPI projections for every game on USC 2024 football's schedule (2024)

Win probability: 45.4 percent

FPI rank:No. 13
AP rank:No. 13
Coaches Poll:No. 12

Reaction: Almost reaching a coin flip chance for the Trojans as this will be the tone setter for the rest of the fall schedule. The Trojans can pull off this upset, but it's going to take a coming out party for USC's new defense in a Las Vegas pressure cooker. LSU's offensive line is the best unit USC's defense will face this upcoming season.

Head-to-head record: 1-1
Most recent result:1984(LSU 23-3; Los Angeles)
Record in 10 most previous: N/A
Most lopsided win:1979(17-12; Baton Rouge)
Most lopsided loss: 1984(23-3; Los Angeles)

Win probability: 90.3 percent

FPI rank:No. 102
AP rank:N/A
Coaches Poll:N/A

Reaction: No shocker that the Trojans are the OVERWHELMING favorites in this matchup. Utah State has some talent, but it's a program in turmoil after the abrupt dismissal of head coach Blake Anderson. This game could be over by halftime. If fact the Trojan fans probably expect it.

Head-to-head record: 6-0
Most recent result:2016 (USC45-7; Los Angeles)
Record in 10 most previous: N/A
Most lopsided win:1930(65-0; Los Angeles)
Most lopsided loss: N/A

Win probability: 34.3 percent

FPI rank:No. 12
AP rank: No. 9
Coaches Poll: No. 8

Reaction: The Trojans are getting a decent chance in the Big House, but they will be notable underdogs in their first ever Big Ten conference game. This Michigan team is not the national champions from last fall, but there is plenty of talent across the board. Both these teams will get Top 25 games before they meet: USC getting the Tigers and Michigan hosting No. 4 Texas. If USC's defense looks legit in the first two games this number will swing higher for the visitors.

Head-to-head record: 6-4
Most recent result:2007 (USC32-18; Pasadena)
Record in 10 most previous: 6-4 (USC has won the last three matchups)
Most lopsided win: 2004(28-14; Pasadena)
Most lopsided loss:1948 (49-0; Pasadena)

Win probability:70.8 percent

FPI rank:No. 39
AP rank:N/A
Coaches Poll:N/A

Reaction: I'll be honest, I was a little shocked at how high this number is. I was expecting something in the low 60-percent range. Not a nearly 71 percent chance. The Trojans should be the favorites in this one, but the Badgers could make a huge jump in Year 2 under Luke Fickell. The Badgers will be dangerous getting a bye week before heading out to L.A. and getting a perfect measuring stick game against Alabama before the bye week.

Head-to-head record: 6-1
Most recent result:2015 (Wisconsin23-21; San Diego)
Record in 10 most previous: N/A
Most lopsided win:1966(38-3; Los Angeles)
Most lopsided loss:2015 (23-21; San Diego)

Win probability:66.7 percent

FPI rank:No. 61
AP rank:N/A
Coaches Poll:N/A

Reaction: Minnesota should be one of the weaker teams in the conference, but don't be shocked if the Gophers are better than anticipated. There is talent in the program, it's just failed to click on a consistent basis. This is the first Big Ten conference road game ever for USC and it should find a pumped-up crowd in Huntington Bank Stadium.

Head-to-head record: 6-1-1
Most recent result:2011 (USC 19-17; Los Angeles)
Record in 10 most previous: N/A
Most lopsided win:1979(48-14; Los Angeles)
Most lopsided loss:1955 (25-19; Minneapolis)

Win probability:37.5 percent

FPI rank:No. 6
AP rank:No. 8
Coaches Poll:No. 9

Reaction: Feels a little too low for USC, especially considering it will be hosting the Nittany Lions. I was thinking somewhere in the 40 percent range, but I'm not shocked USC is projected as an underdog. Underdog status aside, this will be a huge opportunity for the Trojans to get a statement conference win right in the middle of the schedule.

Head-to-head record: 6-4
Most recent result:2017 (USC 52-49; Pasadena)
Record in 10 most previous: 6-4 (USC has won the last three matchups)
Most lopsided win: 2000(29-5; East Rutherford)
Most lopsided loss:1994 (38-14; State College)

Win probability:55.5 percent

FPI rank:No. 46
AP rank:N/A
Coaches Poll:N/A

Reaction: Nearly a coin flip, probably due to the amount of travel the Trojans have to make to the East Coast. The Terps have a strong chance to be undefeated going into this game, likely to fuel a packed stadium. The Trojans should win this game, but it's going to take a focused group on an East Coast time zone.

Head-to-head record:No previous meetings

Win probability:N/A

FPI rank:No. 45
AP rank:N/A
Coaches Poll:N/A

Reaction: We are still waiting on the official percentage for the Rutgers matchup. There is an error with EPSN for this matchup, but we feel confident the Trojans will have the advantage.Rutgers is a lot like Minnesota. On paper it will be one of the weaker teams, but it will be a headache at times for stronger teams, especially under Greg Schiano. It's a short week for both squads, but the Trojans aren't the ones that need to fly across the country.

Head-to-head record:No previous meetings

Win probability:54.8 percent

FPI rank:No. 31
AP rank:N/A
Coaches Poll:N/A

Reaction: Seattle has been a tough place to play for the Trojans recently, but USC gets a program in transition with new head coach Jedd Fisch. He has a better base than what he took over in Arizona, so the Huskies should at worst be a bowl team in Year 1.

Head-to-head record:51-30-4*
Most recent result:2019 (Washington28-14; Seattle)
Record in 10 most previous: 5-5 (Washington has won three of the last four meetings)
Most lopsided win: 2008(56-0; Los Angeles)
Most lopsided loss:1960 (34-0; Los Angeles)

*One win vacated due to NCAA sanctions.

Win probability:73.6 percent

FPI rank:No. 41
AP rank:N/A
Coaches Poll:N/A

Reaction: USC should be the favorite in hosting this game, but Nebraska is a big wild card team in 2024. At this point in the season the Cornhuskers could be a very dangerous team behind former No. 1 overall prospect and QB Dylan Raiola. It should also walk into the Coliseum with one of the best defenses in the country. Just over 70 percent feels a little high.

Head-to-head record:4-1-0
Most recent result:2014 (USC 45-24; San Diego)
Record in 10 most previous: N/A
Most lopsided win: 2006(28-10; Los Angeles)
Most lopsided loss: N/A

Win probability:61.8 percent

FPI rank:No. 40
AP rank:N/A
Coaches Poll:N/A

Reaction: We can throw out the percentages when talking about a rivalry game, especially across town. The Bruins are adjusting under first-year head coach DeShaun Foster, which could make for a growing pain season after the departure of Chip Kelly. Again, this one is unpredictable, but USC should be the favorite in the Rose Bowl.

Head-to-head record:50-33-7*
Most recent result:2023 (UCLA 38-20; Los Angeles)
Record in 10 most previous: 6-4 (USC has lost two of the last three meetings)
Most lopsided win:1929(76-0; Los Angeles)
Most lopsided loss:1950 (39-0; Los Angeles)

*Two wins vacated due to NCAA sanctions.

Win probability:38.2 percent

FPI rank:No. 7
AP rank: No. 7
Coaches Poll:No. 7

Reaction: I was thinking a little closer to 50 percent and maybe even the slight edge in this one for the Trojans. Instead, FPI is a big believer in the Fighting Irish for 2024.Last game of the regular season so these will be wildly different teams, and I think USC will be the favorite by the time this rolls around. But we'll see.

Head-to-head record: 37-5-49*
Most recent result:2023 (Notre Dame48-20; South Bend)
Record in 10 most previous: 3-7 (USC has lost five of the last six)
Most lopsided win: 2008(38-0; South Bend)
Most lopsided loss:1966 (51-0; Los Angeles)

*One win vacated due to NCAA sanctions.