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Energy use and economic development are inseparable. Where there is energy poverty, there is poverty. And where energy availability rises, living standards rise as well.
The Global Outlook is ExxonMobil’s latest view of energy demand and supply through 2050. It forms the basis for our business planning and is underpinned by a deep understanding of long-term market fundamentals.
View the Executive summary
2050
projections and key takeaways
Key insight: 1
2B more people and a global economy 2X the size
The world’s future energy needs will be determined by the number of people there are and the level of economic growth they enjoy. On both counts, the numbers are staggering.
Key insight: 2
15% more energy
To support a growing population with rising living standards, we project the world will need to produce 15% more energy in 2050 than it does today.
Key insight: 3
25% decline in emissions but more is needed to reach society’s climate goals
The evolution of the global energy system will mean a significant reduction in the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions, but larger reductions are needed to limit peak warming to below 2°C throughout the 21st century.
Key insight: 4
½ of society’s emissions come from sectors where technology solutions need to grow dramatically
Reaching net zero will require tackling emissions in hard-to-decarbonize parts of the economy such as commercial transportation and industrial activity.
Key insight: 5
5X greater use of wind and solar
Renewable energy continues to hold great promise, and we see wind and solar providing 11% of the world’s energy supply in 2050, five times today’s contribution.
Key insight: 6
>50% of energy demand still met by oil and natural gas
Even with an unprecedented rise in lower-emission options, oil and natural gas are still projected to meet more than half of the world’s energy needs in 2050.
Key insight: 7
3 key drivers will determine the pace of the energy transition
Additional public policy support, significant technological improvements, and the development of market-based approaches will be critical for a sustainable transition.
We begin creating the Outlook by looking at fundamental drivers including population, living standards, and consumer preferences.
Then we forecast energy demand across 15 sectors and match the demand for energy services with about 20 types of energy, considering how technology, government policies, and other factors may evolve. We forecast oil and natural gas production from key producing countries/regions, and to estimate energy-related CO2 emissions, we look at historical and projected energy demand and apply an emissions factor for each type.
Explore the fundamentals
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Global energy fundamentals
Energy is essential for human progress. Economic expansion and improving access to energy enable people to lead longer, more productive lives.
Learn more about progress and its relation to energy
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Energy demand: Three drivers
Policy. Technology. Consumer preferences. All three affect how the world uses energy. Each driver influences the others and changes over time, with variances by region and political circ*mstances.
View data through our studies and modeling
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Energy transition signposts
Any projection or scenario of future energy demand and supply will reflect a given pace of the energy transition. In our long-term planning, we pay close attention to key signposts that indicate a potential shift in the speed and direction of the transition.
View signposts and third party comparisons
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Energy supply
Energy – in all its forms – enables growth and prosperity. As economies grow, as technology advances, as consumers become more environmentally aware, and as government policies adapt, global energy demand will evolve to meet changing needs.
Review the global energy supply mix
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Emissions
Providing reliable, affordable energy to support prosperity and improve living standards is coupled with the need to do so in ways that reduce risk to the environment, including climate change.
View the projections for CO2 emissions
How we develop our Outlook
Monitoring policy and technology trends
The Company monitors changes in technology and policy, for example solar panel pricing, battery efficiency, the European Union’s tailpipe emissions regulations, and China’s coming 14th five-year plan.
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